The GBP/USD currency pair again showed no interesting moves on Tuesday. This week there will be very little important data for the pair. The only notable release is the US inflation report. The European Central Bank meeting may affect GBP/USD indirectly, but the ECB's decision has only limited direct relevance to the pound or the dollar.

Overall, the market remains focused on Federal Reserve policy. Traders lack a consensus, so everyone entertains their own scenario. Some believe Kevin Warsh has hinted three times that he is ready to begin tightening. Others think Warsh will do everything to block any rate hike. Some argue that the strong August Nonfarm Payrolls allow the Fed to tighten in September. Others say the labor market's condition will block any tightening for a long time. Futures markets price in tightening, while the currency market does not (otherwise the dollar would be appreciating).

Traders are not currently concerned about the Bank of England's decision next week — whatever it decides will be what it is. In general, the pound, like the euro, retains good prospects to rise because uptrends persist across timeframes and the dollar currently has no supporting factors. If the Fed does tighten this autumn, the dollar will likely strengthen for some time — but for how long? How long will the market avoid resuming the long-term uptrend?

Normally we would look to macro reports for trading signals, but right now that makes little sense. If the market stayed passive even on a major US Nonfarm print, what reaction can be expected to UK releases, which are traditionally less important? UK data currently attract little interest. On Friday, GDP and industrial production for July will be released, but who cares if the US inflation report comes out the same day?

Thus, regrettably, the only sensible course is to wait for the week's most important events. On other days, we would not expect strong market moves. Traders have two choices: trade the smallest timeframes aiming for 10–15 pips, or hold trades for several days aiming for 50–60 pips. But note that low volatility often means no intraday trend; many false signals appear during flat markets. A trader's friend is the trend, not the flat.

Average volatility of GBP/USD over the last 5 trading days is 53 pips — "low" for the pound. On Wednesday, September 9, we therefore expect movement within the 1.3479–1.3585 range. The major linear-regression channel has turned up, indicating an uptrend. The CCI entered oversold territory, warning of a possible end to the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3489

S2 – 1.3428

S3 – 1.3367

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3550

R2 – 1.3611

R3 – 1.3672

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair retains an upward trend. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar strength. 2026 has been positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every story has an end. On the weekly timeframe, the pair remains flat between 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year uptrend, allowing for expectations of continued pound gains in the medium term. Long positions with targets at 1.3585 and 1.3611 can be considered when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows shorts with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3479.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;

Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.