empty
04.01.2023 10:43 AM
Is Bitcoin preparing to update the local bottom in Q1 2023?

Bitcoin remains unwaveringly committed to an indifferent flat movement in the first days of January 2023. The cryptocurrency managed to achieve local success and form a green candle, thanks to which the asset reached the level of $16.8k.

However, if we trace the weekly path of Bitcoin to current positions, we can note low trading volumes, as well as low investment activity of long-term investors. Certain categories of hodlers continue to sell off their BTC holdings.

This image is no longer relevant

According to data from Glassnode, the number of addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC has dropped to 2,000. The figure has reached a three-year low, indicating a lack of consensus among long-term investors regarding Bitcoin.

In part, this fact indicates that the period of large-scale consolidation and redistribution of BTC volumes continues. However, throughout 2022, the market became convinced that the best catalyst for the movement of BTC coins is a crisis situation and a sharp drop in price.

Is Bitcoin heading toward $10k?

According to experts of the largest investment company VanEck, the cryptocurrency market is heading for this scenario. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of 2023 will be characterized by an aggravation of crisis processes and high volatility.

This image is no longer relevant

It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downward movement and update the local bottom near the $10k–$12k levels. According to VanEck experts, this will be affected by the current state of the mining industry. The rise in the price of energy resources and the cost of mining BTC provoke huge losses among the miners.

Recall that, on average, for each BTC mined, mining companies incur a loss of about $3,000. It also recently became known that the total credit debt of public mining companies is more than $4 billion. VanEck experts consider these factors to be key in the future fall in the price of the cryptocurrency.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that the warning about "several difficult months" was contained in a letter to the employees of the largest crypto exchange Binance. Also, the average percentage of BTC price drop from the high is 85%. As part of the current bear market, the asset lost about 77%.

This image is no longer relevant

Presumably, when the price of Bitcoin reaches the $10k–$12k area, the percentage of the fall from the high will be approximately 82%–85%. Given these data, forecasts from VanEck experts have every chance of becoming a reality.

SPX and Bitcoin

A regular guest of analysis of the situation around Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index is more relevant today than ever. If you look at the SPX annual price chart, you can see that despite the massive drop after 2021, the asset is still overheated.

This image is no longer relevant

Given the approaching recession and the focus of investors on capital preservation, the fall of SPX may continue. Bank of America and BNP Paribas forecast that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at $3,400.

This image is no longer relevant

As of January 4, the stock index quotes are close to $3,800. A fall to the $3,400 level will mean that the asset's capitalization will lose another 8%–10%. Given that SPX is the flagship of the stock market, a corresponding movement should be expected on other instruments.

BTC/USD Analysis

In the medium term, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will update the local bottom, which will cause the next stage of capitulation and redistribution of capital. At a distance of a year, the asset may resume its upward movement and reach the level of $30k, according to VanEck experts.

This image is no longer relevant

A key factor in the recovery movement of the Bitcoin price may be a reversal of the Fed's policy. More than 2/3 of economists from the 23 largest financial institutions expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there are plans to increase the key rate to the 5%–5.5% level. At current rates, the indicator will reach the indicated milestone by March–April 2023, just in time for the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Results

The crypto market has survived most of the bear market, however, many factors point to the need for a final dive. Given this, we should not expect significant recovery movements in the BTC price in the first half of 2023.

The main stage of the price recovery and consolidation movement in preparation for the 2024 bull market will begin in the second half of 2023. Until then, the investment environment in the crypto market will be toxic and unattractive due to the recession and future bankruptcies of crypto companies.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Artem Petrenko
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 18

Bitcoin returned to the $121,000 mark today, but failed to hold above it. Ethereum broke through the $3,600 level. In addition to the fact that all necessary cryptocurrency-related bills passed

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:42 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Solana has the potential to continue its rally to the next resistance level on Friday, July 18, 2025.

Solana – Friday, July 18, 2025. With a Golden Cross condition between the EMA (50) and the EMA (200) as well as the RSI (14) in the neutral-bullish area, there

Arief Makmur 07:02 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Bitcoin Forecast for July 18, 2025

Yesterday, Bitcoin tested the support level of 117,730 with a long lower shadow on the daily candle and closed the day above the inner line of the green price channel

Laurie Bailey 04:46 2025-07-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 17

Bitcoin attempted several times yesterday to break above the 120,000 level but failed to succeed. Ethereum, on the other hand, completed its task and easily jumped from 3,100 to 3,300

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:05 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Some market makers fix profits

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin rebounded to the $119,000 level, some major players in the cryptocurrency market were quick to take profits after recent large price movements. Investment firm Ark Invest

Jakub Novak 13:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 16

Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a modest correction but overall remained above the $117,000 mark, clearly indicating that its bullish prospects remain intact — it just needs a catalyst. Ethereum climbed back

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:51 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Bitcoin in limbo

Bitcoin buyers appear to be somewhat confused, as the FOMO currently dominating the market could backfire on those trying to jump on the "last train", — which, in reality

Jakub Novak 15:34 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Crypto week

While Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing a correction and doing so rather effectively, lawmakers and cryptocurrency advocates in the United States are preparing for one of the most important weeks

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 15

Bitcoin has dropped from its all-time high of $123,000 and is currently trading at $117,000, which only increases its appeal. Ethereum has also fallen back below the 3,000-dollar level, after

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:31 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Bitcoin outpaces Amazon in terms of market cap

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high near $122,000, surpassing Amazon in market capitalization. This event is undoubtedly a landmark moment in the history of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance

Jakub Novak 10:52 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.