empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
20.03.2025 10:05 AM
Fed's message music to bulls' ears
Open trading account Open demo account

The Fed is not throwing a lifeline to the S&P 500, but does it need one? Lifelines are for those drowning, while the market is merely spooked by a fleeting recession scare. Powell's tone at the post-FOMC press conference was bot just conciliatory—it was calming. The head of the Fed signaled control, and that was enough to lift the broad stock index.

Recession risks may be higher, but they are not alarmingly so. Inflation remains sticky, but there is no reason to panic. The impact of tariffs is transitory. The White House's protectionist stance brings uncertainty, but the Fed has time to wait. The stock market, which had lost about $5 trillion in market capitalization, was desperate for good news. Powell's calm gave traders the confidence to add long positions in the S&P 500 index.

The broad stock index logged its strongest post-FOMC reaction since July, as policymakers' reluctance to radically adjust the federal funds rate forecast was exactly what markets wanted to hear. Investors stopped fretting over recession risks—and what more could a battered S&P 500 ask for?

S&P 500's response to Fed meetings: patterns and trends

This image is no longer relevant

The Fed slightly raised its inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, while lowering its GDP growth projection for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%. In effect, this reduced the chances of a soft landing and edged the economy closer to stagflation—an environment that equity markets do not favor.

According to Bloomberg estimates, the probability of a soft landing has shrunk to 10%, while the likelihood of stagflation has climbed to 40%. The chance of a recession now stands at 35%, while the risk of a hard downturn is estimated at 15%. This means that the odds of an unfavorable scenario for the S&P 500 are hovering around 90%, hardly an environment conducive to a sustained rally.

The Devil is in the details. While the Fed's median rate projection remained unchanged—still pointing to two rate cuts—the details tell a different story. In December, 15 Fed officials backed this outlook. By March, that number had dropped to 11. Meanwhile, eight Fed policymakers now expect only one rate cut or even less in 2025. That is bad news for the S&P 500.

Fed's interest rate projections

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Adding to market jitters, Donald Trump's call for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts—declaring April 2 as "America's Liberation Day"—only fuels uncertainty. The White House's tariffs are just around the corner, and there is reason to believe they will be substantial. As that moment approaches, fear will creep back into the markets, bringing with it another wave of S&P 500 sell-offs.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows that S&P 500 bulls have launched a counterattack, attempting to regain control. However, the bearish momentum remains dominant. A pullback from the resistance levels of 5,750 and 5,815, or a break below the pivot level of 5,670 and the fair value of 5,620 should be seen as selling opportunities.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for May 30 The S&P 500 opened the session on a positive note but soon reversed course after officials clarified that previously overturned tariffs would remain in place pending the outcome
Ekaterina Kiseleva
12:20 2025-05-30 +02:00
1075
Fundamental analysis
Legal Disputes Between Trump and Companies Over Tariffs Will Negatively Impact Markets (There Is a Likelihood of Continued Decline in Bitcoin and Litecoin Prices) Global markets are significantly influenced by events occurring in the United States, where both political and economic spheres continue to swing like a pendulum. Earlier this week, after the U.S
Pati Gani
11:11 2025-05-30 +02:00
1135
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Legal Disputes Between Trump and Companies Over Tariffs Will Negatively Impact Markets (There Is a Likelihood of Continued Decline in Bitcoin and Litecoin Prices)

Global markets are significantly influenced by events occurring in the United States, where both political and economic spheres continue to swing like a pendulum. Earlier this week, after the U.S
Pati Gani 11:11 2025-05-30 UTC+2

More Time is Needed

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan indicated yesterday that it might take some time before policymakers understand how the economy will react to tariffs and other policy changes
Jakub Novak 10:53 2025-05-30 UTC+2

The ECB Should Not Delay Rate Cuts

While the euro is trying to regain its monthly highs after a fairly significant correction seen this week, a survey of several economists shows that the European Central Bank
Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Markets Demand an Appeal

The S&P 500 started the day strong but ended on a downbeat note. Initially buoyed by the U.S. Court of International Trade's ruling that the White House's tariffs were illegal
Marek Petkovich 10:33 2025-05-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are set to be released on Friday, but none are deemed particularly significant. In Germany, the inflation report for May will be released, with expectations
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 30: Justice Has Prevailed, but for How Long?

The GBP/USD currency pair closed below the moving average line on Thursday, and the dollar strengthened for three consecutive days. However, everything changed in the second half
Paolo Greco 03:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 30: Checkmate to Donald Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its slight downward movement on Thursday morning but surged sharply upward in the afternoon. We observed a strong emotional reaction from traders linked
Paolo Greco 03:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Trump's Authority Has Been Seriously Undermined

In this review, I will try to explore why the cancellation of Donald Trump's global tariffs is more likely to be negative for the U.S. dollar than positive. At first
Chin Zhao 00:51 2025-05-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD: FOMC Minutes, U.S. GDP, and the Legal Battle

The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday did not excite EUR/USD traders, leaving buyers and sellers unimpressed. The minutes reflected the key points from the accompanying statement and the main messages
Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-05-30 UTC+2

The Dollar Puts on a Brave Face Amid Adversity

Don't look for a black cat in a dark room—especially if it isn't there. The verdict by the U.S. Court of International Trade declaring the White House's universal tariffs illegal
Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2025
05:26 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
Forecast for USD/JPY on May 30, 2025
05:26 2025-05-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-05-31 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on May 30. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:55 2025-05-30
Forecast
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 30: The Market Fooled Everyone
03:51 2025-05-30
Trading plan
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-30 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – May 30: Checkmate to Donald Trump
03:51 2025-05-30
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.