empty
11.04.2025 12:36 PM
EUR/USD – April 11th. The Dollar's Decline Shows No Sign of Stopping

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair spent the entire day in an upward move, gaining 400 points and approaching the 261.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1318. A rebound from this level or from 1.1374 would favor the U.S. dollar and could lead to a modest decline. However, under the current circumstances, it's difficult to say what could actually work in favor of the dollar. It's unlikely that any technical level can withstand Donald Trump's trade policy, which has already devalued the dollar by 1,000 points.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous peak. This indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. Donald Trump continues to impose new import tariffs, and panic and chaos persist in the markets. Bulls re-entered the game last week—and with good reason.

The news flow on Thursday was extremely strong, but not for the bears. The main story was Trump's decision to give all countries a 90-day window for negotiations with the U.S., during which reduced import tariffs would apply. At the same time, however, he raised tariffs on imports from China. These rates have now reached triple digits. Traders did not respond positively to Trump's attempts to calm panic in the U.S. stock market or the sharp decline in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Investors are fleeing all U.S. securities. The new escalation in the trade war with China is far more concerning than any agreements with African nations. Since the trade war with China is not just expanding but accelerating exponentially, there's no reason to buy dollars, expect anything positive from the U.S. economy, or invest in U.S. stocks or bonds. Trust in the U.S. dollar and economy is collapsing at lightning speed.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, but the future direction will depend entirely on global developments. The trade war, in its full sense, is only beginning. Therefore, I cannot anticipate any sustained rise or fall in the pair based on current information alone. Market movements will continue to depend on the news background throughout the day. Nonetheless, the bullish trend remains intact.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 6,549 long positions and opened 7,141 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group recently turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 183,000, while short positions amount to 131,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players were shedding their euro positions. But now, for the past eight weeks, they have been reducing shorts and increasing longs. While the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still theoretically favors the dollar due to interest rate differentials, Trump's trade policy remains a more dominant market factor. It may push the FOMC toward a dovish stance and increase the risk of a U.S. recession.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On April 11, the economic calendar includes two notable releases. While these may have limited impact, the primary market driver remains any trade-related news. On Wednesday, China announced an 84% tariff on U.S. imports, and Trump responded by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% and then to 145%. The ball is now in China's court.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Buying or selling the pair today should be considered only if clear signals emerge near any key levels on the hourly chart. Once again, I emphasize that price movements will mostly be influenced by the news cycle, not the technical picture.

Fibonacci levels are drawn between 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and between 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 01/08/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:24 2025-08-01 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 1, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair returned to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the US dollar. However, the bears failed

Samir Klishi 11:27 2025-08-01 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 1, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday consolidated below the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3258, which suggests a potential continuation of the decline toward the support zone

Samir Klishi 11:11 2025-08-01 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis and Daily Overview on August 1, 2025

On Thursday, the pair moved upward and tested the 14.6% retracement level at 1.1456 (yellow dashed line), after which the price turned downward and closed the daily candlestick at 1.1414

Stefan Doll 09:48 2025-08-01 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for August 1-5, 2025: buy above $115,000 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

Yesterday, Bitcoin reached strong resistance around the 6/8 Murray level at 118,900 during the American session. BTC failed to break above this area and made a sharp drop

Dimitrios Zappas 07:50 2025-08-01 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for August 1-4, 2025: buy above $3,281 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

Gold is trading around 3,292, bouncing above the 4/8 Murray level and forming a technical pattern called a pennant. A break above 3,396, or even a consolidation above

Dimitrios Zappas 07:47 2025-08-01 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for August 1, 2025

Yesterday, markets saw a broad retreat from risk assets: the S&P 500 declined by 0.37%, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.16%, and oil fell by 0.90%. Yields on government

Laurie Bailey 04:52 2025-08-01 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for August 1, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound spent the day within the expected range of 1.3206–1.3265, closing the day with a black candlestick, while today opened below the lower boundary of that range

Laurie Bailey 04:50 2025-08-01 UTC+2

EUR/JPY Forecast for August 1, 2025

The EUR/JPY pair has fallen sharply from the upper boundary of the price channel, almost at the same time as the Marlin oscillator entered negative territory (daily chart). Yesterday

Laurie Bailey 04:42 2025-08-01 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 31, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after rebounding from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. By the end of the day, the pair closed below the 76.4%

Samir Klishi 13:23 2025-07-31 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.