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30.05.2025 12:51 AM
Trump's Authority Has Been Seriously Undermined
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In this review, I will try to explore why the cancellation of Donald Trump's global tariffs is more likely to be negative for the U.S. dollar than positive. At first glance, it might seem that removing trade tariffs signals the end of the Global Trade War. If the market panicked and sold the dollar on every news of escalation, the U.S. currency would surely flourish. But in reality, market participants may be guided by an entirely different logic.

What pattern emerges if we briefly list the key events surrounding the trade war? Most of Trump's decisions were highly controversial and poorly justified. He started by threatening tariffs, then imposed them on 75 countries—including targeted tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and steel. Each time, his rationale was to "make America prosper again." If foreign car manufacturers compete with U.S. automakers and generate enormous revenue from the American market, then Trump believes trade rules should be tightened so the U.S. could collect a tax for access to its market. Is that approach fair? In my opinion, no—and that's not just my view.

Then came two months of tariff whiplash. The White House raised, suspended, threatened tariffs, or introduced "grace periods." Each of Trump's decisions gave the impression that the U.S. President was playing a video game—where, if things go wrong, you can just restart or reload your save. However, in real life, Trump's every move has serious consequences for the economy. The most recent GDP report clearly illustrated that.

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In addition to the above, investor and trader sentiment toward the U.S. economy and government plays a major role in the dollar's performance. If the market sees erratic decisions every other day—leaving traders unsure whether to laugh or cry—can there be confidence in such a government and economy? That's why almost any shockwave headline these days is interpreted as negative for the dollar, no matter the tone. Each news item reinforces the market's view that the occupant of the White House does not prioritize markets, businesses, or consumers.

EUR/USD Wave Structure:

Based on current analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish trend segment. The wave structure in the near term will depend entirely on news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the uptrend is forming, with targets potentially reaching the 1.25 area. Therefore, I favor buy positions with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% Fibonacci. Of course, the de-escalation of the trade war could reverse this uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

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GBP/USD Wave Structure:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has also changed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that will not align with wave patterns or any type of technical analysis. However, for now, the market is following the updated wave scenario. Wave 3 is in progress, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. So, I continue to favor longs, as the market shows no sign of another trend reversal.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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