Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.02 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential.

Today, the key event is the release of U.S. labor market data. Nonfarm payroll dynamics and the unemployment rate serve as barometers of the health of the U.S. economy and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

An increase in job creation is expected, which is positive for the dollar. However, only an outperformance of forecasts could trigger a sharp strengthening of the USD/JPY pair. This is because strong labor market data would reinforce the belief in the U.S. economy's ability to sustain high interest rates. Higher interest rates enhance the dollar's appeal to yield-seeking investors. Conversely, weak results, especially regarding wage growth, could have the opposite effect—weakening the dollar as the Fed might take a more cautious stance on monetary policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 144.27 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 145.06 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 145.06, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts, aiming for a 30–35 points reversal move. A good rally in the pair today can be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.97 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 144.27 and 145.06 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 143.97 (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be the 143.33 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately switch to buying, aiming for a 20–25 points reversal move. Selling pressure will return if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 144.27 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 143.97 and 143.33 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.